Optimal Craps Betting Strategy Strategies
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Optimal Craps Betting Strategy Rules
Optimal Craps Betting Strategy Tactics

Asswhoopermcdaddy

Is there a change in optimal betting strategy under the following circumstances:
1.) We know the normal distribution of 2 fair sided dice. We have the belief that over time, through many simulations we will approach this normal distribution.
2.) In our current limited number of trials, our actual distributions are either slightly skewed to the left or right of the average.
For example: we have a distribution with a low number of 7's and a higher number of 5's and 6's or 8's and 9's.
Is there an optimal betting strategy that can be created that is geared toward assuming more iterations will mean revert back to the norm versus another strategy that continues the actual observed distribution of 5's and 6's or 8's and 9's?

treetopbuddy

Boy, did you tee one up

Each day is better than the next

sodawater

Best Craps Bets I should tell you right away that the best craps bet is the 'don't pass' bet with the free odds bet. This combination can ultimately lower the house edge to 0.01%, which is ridiculously low at a casino. You can use this strategy and make a ton of money, or at least keep playing for a very long time without losing your bankroll. An optimal strategy here would be to play 3 hands minimum bet ($100 per hand as this was high limit) with the progressive wager every hand. Assuming the house edge on BJ was about 0.5% (a fair assumption as it is 3/2 with no severe limitations on the game) the EV on each hand is: ($31.75x3) - ($0.50x3), or +$93.75 each hand dealt.

Is there an optimal betting strategy that can be created that is geared toward assuming more iterations will mean revert back to the norm versus another strategy that continues the actual observed distribution of 5's and 6's or 8's and 9's? Closest casino to eureka springs arkansas.

This is not how the statistics of independent trials works. Nothing is ever due. The way it 'reverts back' is that, over many trials, the percentage of 7s will approach 1/6. For each throw of the dice, the chance of a 7 is 1/6, regardless if 10 of the last 20 rolls have been 7, or if 0 of the last 20 rolls have been 7.
Another way to look at this is this way:
If you flip a fair coin over and over and over, the ratio of heads to tails will approach 1 to 1. However, the actual difference between the number of heads flipped and number of tails flipped will continue to increase, forever.
Compare this to blackjack, which when dealt out of a shoe or handheld deck, is a game of dependent trials. If you observe that there haven't been many 10s hitting the felt so far in the shoe, you CAN create a betting strategy to exploit this later in the shoe. That's what card counting is all about.
The reason it works for blackjack is the dependent trials part. Craps resets every time the dice are rolled.

vendman1

Sure, don't play craps.

AlanMendelson

If you are looking for a mathematical way to win at craps the answer is there is no mathematical way to win at craps. And that goes for betting too.

odiousgambit

if you have a short-term anomaly, like that there have been excessive 7s, the long-term will indeed correct that. Unfortunately, the dice don't know that they must roll less 7s. So instead the anomaly simply gets buried under the force of larger numbers, the dice in the short-term perhaps continuing excessive 7s.

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. .. Arnold Snyder

nezbit

no clue what you are asking here.
let me take a stab at what im guessing you are talking about. If you are hitting more 5s/6s then bet more on the 5 and the 6, i would guess the same for the 8 and 9 as well? LOL ;)

odiousgambit

no clue what you are asking here.

I'm guessing also, but I think the thinking here is this: there is a point in every gambler's life when he goes, 'wait a minute, 6s [or whatever] rolled 10 times more often than normal in the last 200 rolls won't stand. In the long run, the percentage will return close to 5/36. I should be able to cash in'.
Not realizing it doesn't mean the dice even it out by 'trying not to roll' sixes.

boymimbo

I think a strategy towards the 'anti-bias' is a dumb one.
Dice or roulette tables don't know the meaning of the word 'normal'. As the number of rolls (spins) increase, you expect to see a more 'normal' distribution, but that in itself is a statistical anomaly. In an unbiased result set, PAST results have no meaning over future results. That is, if you see 10 8s in a row and the dice is truly unbiased, the odds of seeing the next 8 is 5/36.
If you believe in bias, then the best way to bet in roulette or craps is with the trend, not against it. In the worst case scenario, a bias doesn't exist and you will see the expected results over the NEXT number of rolls. The true odds of seeing an 8 is 5/36 despite the fact that you just saw 8 of them. In the best case scenario, the bias does exist (whether it be flawed dice, dice influence, God, magnetic forces, pip weight, whatever), and you should bet the numbers you see most often to take advantage of the pattern or bias that you think you see. If bias are biased, you will see them more. If dice are not biased, then you will see a random distribution. An anti-bias cannot exist because dice have no memory. They do have a distribution pattern however.

Optimal Craps Betting Strategy Strategies

Mind you, you can't be dumb about it. If you believe that box cars come up 1 time in 31 rolls (instead of 1 in 36) you'd still be stupid to bet them because they only pay 30.

Optimal Craps Betting Strategy Games

----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!

Optimal Craps Betting Strategy Rules

Asswhoopermcdaddy

Optimal Craps Betting Strategy Tactics

Ok I take your point since the outcomes are independent of future events. Suppose as you say, we are dealing with bia